Volatility Decay - At a Glance

How come Leveraged ETFs don't always work out in the long-run?



Leveraged ETFs, Volatility Decay, and more

If you've ever looked at your investment portfolio and noticed it wasn’t quite keeping pace with the market, you might have come across a term called "volatility decay." It sounds a bit technical, but in reality, it’s something that every investor should understand—especially if you're investing in certain types of assets. Let’s break it down in simple terms and look at why it matters.

What is Volatility Decay?
Volatility decay happens when the value of an investment decreases over time due to the fluctuations or volatility in the market. This effect is most often seen in certain types of investment products, like leveraged ETFs (exchange-traded funds) or options. While these investments are designed to amplify returns, they can also amplify losses—especially in volatile markets. Here’s an example to illustrate: Let’s say an asset has a price of $100. Over the next few days, it moves up and down, but in the end, it stays relatively close to where it started. A standard investment might not lose much value during this fluctuation, but a leveraged investment, which tries to double or triple daily returns, can lose more value. Even if the market eventually moves back in your favor, the compounding nature of the volatility causes the value to drop below its original starting point.

Why is Volatility Decay Important?
Volatility decay matters because it can slowly eat away at the value of your investments, especially in choppy or sideways markets. If you're holding onto a leveraged ETF or similar products, the constant up-and-down movement may work against you more than you'd expect. While the market might move in your favor over the long term, the daily volatility of leveraged products can cause the overall value to decrease. This is particularly true if you're holding an investment for a longer period of time. In simpler terms, volatility decay doesn’t just affect how an asset moves on a given day, but how those daily changes compound over weeks or months. If you don’t account for it, your returns might be much lower than you anticipate, even if the market generally moves in your favor.

How Does Volatility Decay Affect Your Investments?
Let’s put this into perspective with a more concrete example. Imagine you invest in a leveraged ETF that aims to provide twice the daily return of a stock index, like the S&P 500. On Day 1, the index goes up 10%, so the ETF jumps 20%. On Day 2, the market drops by 5%, so the ETF drops by 10%. Now, you might expect that after these two days, you’re back at break-even—since a 10% drop should wipe out the previous 10% gain. But you’re wrong. Here’s why: - On Day 1, your investment grew by 20%, so it’s now worth $120. - On Day 2, the ETF drops by 10%, but the 10% is calculated from $120, not the original $100. So, it drops by $12, leaving you with $108. So, despite the market’s daily fluctuations, you end up with a smaller value than you started with, and that’s due to volatility decay. The more often the market swings back and forth, the worse the decay can get, and over time, this adds up.

Why Should You Care?
For most investors, volatility decay is something to be aware of when using certain high-risk, high-reward investment products. It’s especially important if you're considering using leveraged ETFs or any kind of options trading, where volatility can work against you more quickly. While these investments can be tempting because of their potential for higher returns, they come with a hidden cost: the impact of volatility decay. Even if you’re just holding on to these assets for a short time, volatility decay can eat away at your gains. That’s why it’s important to carefully consider the time horizon and strategy behind your investments.

How can you protect yourself?
The first step is to know what you’re getting into. If you plan to invest in products that have volatility decay, make sure you understand how they work and how the market’s daily fluctuations can affect them. Consider using these products for short-term trades, not long-term investments. For long-term growth, it might be wiser to stick to more stable assets like index funds, bonds, or stocks, which don’t suffer as much from volatility decay. Additionally, diversification is key. By spreading your investments across different asset classes, you reduce your risk of being hit hard by volatility in any one area. A diversified portfolio will usually weather volatility better than a concentrated one.

Closing Remarks
Volatility decay is an important concept to understand as you build your investment strategy. While it may not impact every investor equally, it’s crucial for anyone using leveraged or highly volatile investments. By keeping an eye on the fluctuations of the market and choosing your assets wisely, you can protect yourself from the hidden costs of volatility decay and set yourself up for more consistent returns.

Clay Gorham

About the Author

Clay Gorham

Clay is an economics student and investment writer with a passion for market trends, risk management, and long-term wealth building. When he's not analyzing charts, he enjoys discussing the psychology of investing and helping others navigate the financial landscape.

INR flag INR: ₹85.54
CNY flag CNY: ¥7.20
ILS flag ILS: ₪3.51
COP flag COP: $4,152.78
SEK flag SEK: kr9.60
PHP flag PHP: ₱55.79
MYR flag MYR: RM4.26
NZD flag NZD: NZ$1.68
TRY flag TRY: ₺39.20
IDR flag IDR: Rp16,363.75
AED flag AED: د.إ3.67
HUF flag HUF: Ft355.81
MXN flag MXN: MX$19.44
DKK flag DKK: kr6.57
TWD flag TWD: NT$29.92
KRW flag KRW: ₩1,380.33
THB flag THB: ฿32.76
CZK flag CZK: Kč21.97
BRL flag BRL: R$5.73
ZAR flag ZAR: R17.99
VND flag VND: ₫26,016.30
CHF flag CHF: CHF0.82
RUB flag RUB: ₽77.50
AUD flag AUD: A$1.55
SAR flag SAR: ﷼3.75
CAD flag CAD: C$1.38
HKD flag HKD: HK$7.84
CLP flag CLP: $945.41
JPY flag JPY: ¥144.00
GBP flag GBP: £0.74

Let's Get in Touch

Stormfront Capital

Head Office: 718 Talbot St, London, ON N6A 2V1

Email: masonwalton44@gmail.com

Phone: (705) 984-3284